ScenIC encoding of EDCS scenario

ScenIC encoding of EDCS scenario
Background

Roles

Hostile country	Organization
US	Organization
Ally	Organization
Allied Cmdr	Person
Allied Cmd Staff	Organization
Satellite	System
DSS	System
Defensive missile	System
CC System	System

Situation

A hostile country neighbors an ally of the US. The US wants to maintain alliance with ally, and ally wants to maintain its defenses against threats. The US has a surveillance satellite that monitors military activity in the ally’s geographic region. The US analyzes surveillance satellite data to diagnose military threats, and commands the satellite to gather specific data. The ally employs a commander who has a staff. The commander and staff use a DSS to make decisions. The allied commander is responsible for launching defensive missiles. The allied commander and staff use a command and control system to support battle management.

Issues

Is there more than one satellite?

How and who does the satellite notify of military activity?

Is a ground system involved in the satellite data analysis?

How is the step from diagnosis to satellite commands mediated?

How and when are threat diagnoses communicated to the ally?

Is there one allied commander?

Is there any direct communication from the US to the DSS?

Who is responsible for actually launching missiles and receiving commands from the commander?

Is the CC system involved in the launching sequence?

What is the scope of the legacy system that we are responsible for enhancing?

Episode: hostile mobilization

Summary

A hostile country mobilizes some advanced missiles and threatens its neighbor, an ally of the US.

Point

Hostile country

Achieve: Ally threatened

Behavior

Hostile country

Mobilize missiles

Outcome

Ally threatened

Episode: reporting on mobilization

Summary

A US surveillance satellite reports the nature of the mobilization

Point

US	Know: nature of mobilization
US	Maintain: Assistance of ally

Behavior

Satellite	Detect mobilization
Satellite	Report to US nature of mobilization

Outcome

US knows nature of mobilization

Issues

Realization: How does the satellite detect mobilization and with what accuracy and timeliness?

Realization: How and when is the detection communicated to the US and to what system?

Obstacle: What about false alarms?

Obstacle: What about faulty satellite-to-ground communication links?

Obstacle: What about inauthentic satellite data really originating from an adversary?

Episode: diagnosis of threat

Summary

The satellite data is analyzed to diagnose the situation.

Point

Ally	Maintain: Defense against threats
US	Maintain: Alliance with ally

Behavior

US	Diagnose situation
US	Notify ally of diagnosis

Outcome

The ally knows about the threat.

Issues

Realization: How automated/subjective is the analysis/diagnosis process?

Realization: How discrete/gradual-incremental is the analysis/diagnosis process?

Obstacle: What about faulty interpretation of the data?

Obstacle: What about failed or delayed communication to the ally?

Episode: response to diagnosed threat

Summary

The US ally puts its forces on alert. The surveillance satellite is tasked to focus on the threatening missiles.

Point

Ally

Maintain: Defense against threats

Behavior

Ally	Put forces on alert
US	Order satellite to focus on missiles

Outcome

Ally’s defenses ready. Satellite focused on missiles.

Issues

Allocation: Ally or commander? Is the CC involved in alert readiness?

Realization: How are orders articulated and transmitted to satellite?

Realization: How open-ended are orders to satellite, and how much intelligence does it have?

Obstacle: What about interception of satellite commands?

Obstacle: What about inauthentic satellite commands?

Obstacle: What about non-arrival of satellite commands?

Obstacle: What about satellite failure so that commands are not responded to?

Episode: refinement of threat diagnosis

Summary

The data analysis identifies the most likely threatening missile sites and attack areas.

Point

Ally	Maintain defense against threats
Ally	Know: threat details

Behavior

Satellite	Report on mobilization
US	Analyze satellite data
US	Diagnose likely threats
US	Notify ally of likely threats

Outcome

Ally knows likely threats.

Issues

Realization: How automated/subjective is the analysis/diagnosis process?

Realization: How discrete/gradual-incremental is the analysis/diagnosis process?

Obstacle: What about being swamped with satellite data?

Obstacle: What about faulty interpretation of the data?

Obstacle: What about failed or delayed communication to the ally?

Episode: detection of imminent threat

Summary

The satellite reports pre-launch preparations for some of the threatening missiles.

Point

Ally	Know: imminent danger
Ally	Prevent: unpredicted attack

Behavior

Satellite	Report pre-launch preparations for missiles
US	Notify ally of pre-launch preparations

Outcome

Ally knows about imminent attack.

Issues

Clarification: Is monitoring for pre-launch preparations a basic mission of satellite or included in commands from ground? Or are they interpretations made by US from raw data?

Realization: Is there direct satellite-to-ally notification? Or notification via a ground station system that circumvents US command?

Clarification: How detailed is the pre-launch preparation notification?

Obstacle: What about misinterpretation of pre-launch signs?

Obstacle: What about misidentification of likely threats?

Episodes: remainder of scenario…

Summary

The US ally commander requests analyses of likely decision timelines for committing his forces, and likely outcomes of alternative courses of action. The US ally commander and his staff interact with the DSS and select a defense strategy.

Selected defense missiles are primed for launch. The US ally commander continues to assess threats and options.

The satellite reports specific threatening missiles entering a launch sequence.

The satellite is tasked to provide tracking information on any launched missiles. The US ally commander assigns defensive missiles to intercept the hostile missiles preparing to launch. The command and control system is set up to support the commander’s real-time battle management operations for the given situation.