10/09/96 - 01:15 PM ET - Click reload often for latest version
More than 35 million Americans 16 and older now go on line, says one recent study. No, another suggests, almost 25% do - 48 million. Nah, it's more like one-fifth, or 43 million, finds another.
Until last year, information on who was in cyberspace and what they were doing there was sketchy at best, gleaned mostly from on-line questionnaires.
But one thing everyone seems to agree on is that Net growth has been skyrocketing - which has trendmeisters, potential advertisers, social scientists and even casual observers clamoring for details.
"There has been an explosion in studies," says Donna Hoffman, a Vanderbilt University marketing professor who specializes in Internet demographics. "It's becoming increasingly clear that the on-line environment is going to be a media force to be reckoned with."
Besides wanting information, many wonder " 'How can we make money?' " she notes. That's not something researchers "can sit in a lab and figure out. The answer has to come from the consumer."
"The train is moving very fast," says Brian Sharples of IntelliQuest, a research firm based in Austin, Texas. Many think " 'We've got to jump on.' "
The problem, however, is that while studies are finally being done, they all focus on different questions and ask them in different ways. This makes keeping track of who's on line almost as confusing as it was for Abbott and Costello to keep track of Who's on First.
The Net is growing and changing so fast that research quickly goes out of date. But several recent studies and updates from respected firms including Nielsen, Yankelovich and IntelliQuest have provided tantalizing glimpses into the makeup of the cyberworld: who's there, where they log on from, what they do on line, what they like or don't.
Still, findings vary because "everybody has a slightly different definition of an on-line user," says J. Walker Smith of Yankelovich, tracker of social trends for more than 25 years. "When you really look into the details and objectives of each study it makes perfect sense, but when you read about them all in a newspaper, it seems to be confusing."
For example: Nielsen counts those 16 and older in the USA and Canada who "have access" to the Net. It says 22% to 24% (48 million) do, but Nielsen's Paul Lindstrom admits "access" is a broad term and numbers might not be precise.
Yankelovich counts U.S. adults who have logged on at least once in the past year: 21.5%, it says.IntelliQuest reports 35 million people 16 and older in the USA went on-line in the first three months of 1996. Odyssey of San Francisco says 14% of U.S. households were on line in July.
In an article for an upcoming academic journal, Hoffman and colleagues refer to the Net as a "complex and moving target" and call for consistent study definitions and variables to guarantee comparability.
Up to now, there's been a "wild West mentality - they're on the frontier, making it up as they go. None of this is bad; this is how countries get built," Hoffman says. But if the industry doesn't develop standards soon, frustrated businesses may become "disenchanted and withdraw" from the new medium.
Here's a look at some areas recent studies have tried to get a handle on, and how findings compare.
How many really log on?
Up to 48 million may consider the Net accessible, but how much time they spend on line is another matter.
"We're finding most people are very casual users," IntelliQuest's Sharples says. "There's a lot of romanticizing about surfing the Net for entertainment, but that certainly is not the story today."
Nielsen's update found only 5% to 6% logged on in the past 24 hours, 11%-12% in the past week. The 35 million IntelliQuest says logged on over three months translates into 17% of the USA. In context, 35 million "makes sense," Hoffman says.
The 35 million figure seems to have been widely accepted; it's considered a consensus in the new 1996 I/PRO CyberAtlas ($25, 800-871-3776) in which editor Michael Tchong compiles research from many sources into an attractive 24-page pamphlet. (Updates and links are at http://www.cyberatlas.com).
More women, minorities
Popular wisdom long held so few women were on line that if you saw a female name on the screen, it was likely to be a masquerading male.
Georgia Tech's Jim Pitkow found only 5%-10% of those responding to his user surveys in 1994 were women. That rings true with early users: When Aliza Sherman of New York got on line seven years ago and sought other women to talk to, most of her searches "came up X-rated," the Cybergrrl creator says.
New studies suggest the sex balance has shifted dramatically. Georgia Tech's latest study counted 32% women, a figure I/PRO's CyberAtlas considers a consensus. Some find even more: IntelliQuest gets 36%, Yankelovich 49%. Nielsen says 40% of new users are women.
The ethnic balance on line also appears to be shifting; Yankelovich says 15% of cybercitizens are black, up from 9% a year ago.
Napoleon Carter of Clayton, Mo., says when he networks with other black professionals, "the conversation always gets around to, 'Are you on the Internet?' Everyone is latching onto the technology as much as they can afford," and for those sensitized to bias, "it's a place where people don't know if you're black, white or green with eight legs."
But the "dominant force" on line is still "male, upscale baby boomers," Smith says. "There are more, they spend more time on line and are more likely to shop."
Home users, slow modems
Several studies suggest more users are now logging on from home.
About 18 million (53%) go on line primarily from home vs. 9 million (27%) from work and 5 million (14%) from school, IntelliQuest says.
Much has been written about "churn": quitting an on-line service, often to try another. Yankelovich finds the practice is common. "It's a question of value," Smith says; many who join decide it's not worth the cost. The one exception found is America Online: More than 4 out of 5 who have tried AOL still use it.
About 40% of on-line users have very slow access speeds - modems that transmit data at 9,600 bits per second or less. Among home users, 21% have 14,400 bps modems; 15% have 28,800. That means visiting Web pages heavy on graphics and multimedia gizmos can be slow and frustrating: "Some of the really interesting things on line are out of reach of a lot of people," Smith says.
Why users go on line
People go on line for all kinds of reasons: to check e-mail, do research, interact or just look around. But not to shop, studies suggest.
Although cybershopping hasn't been widely embraced, those who've tried it are converts, including Nancy Manley of Churchville, Md.Her purchases include a carpet shampooer, a mixer, a TV and a VCR: "Even my answering machine beat the lowest price I could find around my area by about $50," she says. "When you're working full time with a family, it makes life a lot easier."
Nielsen says only 14% have purchased a product or service on line; Intelliquest says 7% did during a one-month period measured.
Only 24% report leisure activities have been affected by time spent on line, Yankelovich says; most of those say they watch less TV. But only 17% find on-line entertainment "better than TV," IntelliQuest notes.
Complaints: Speed, cost
IntelliQuest, in a survey for USA TODAY published June 18, reports that despite frustrations, most on-line users are pleased: 74% are satisfied overall, 84% say it's as good as they expected or better. Among top complaints of Web users:
Georgia Tech's latest survey suggests users are concerned about on-line privacy: 26% say they've given false information about themselves when asked to register at Web sites.
Yankelovich says the average number of hours spent on line was down from 16 a month last year to 12 in May. "People are expressing concerns that it's not all it's cracked up to be," Smith says.
Still, IntelliQuest says more than 21 million nonusers plan to go on line in the coming year. International Data Corp. predicts 199 million will use the Net by 1999. Morgan Stanley forecasts 200 million will use e-mail and 152 million will use the Net and Web by the year 2000.
If that's true, some think the on-line industry has a lot of work to do - the Net needs to become much more compelling and easy to use if on-line marketers and businesses hope to attract a mass audience.
"All this rhetoric about cyberspace being the next TV is a little premature," Smith says.
By Leslie Miller, USA TODAY